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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Republican has early lead for open California U.S. House seat

A voter leaves after casting his ballot in a special election for California’s 25th Congressional District during the coronavirus outbreak, Tuesday, May 12, 2020, in Simi Valley, Calif. Republican Mike Garcia and Democrat Christy Smith are running for the seat after the resignation of Rep. Katie Hill, D-Calif. (Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)
By Michael R. Blood Associated Press

LOS ANGELES – A former Navy combat pilot grabbed an early lead Tuesday in the fight for an open U.S. House seat north of Los Angeles, giving California Republicans a rare chance to claim a Democratic-held congressional seat in the state.

The special election between Mike Garcia and Democrat Christy Smith in the swing 25th District has taken on outsized importance as the only competitive House race in the country in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. It’s seen nationally as a proxy vote on President Donald Trump’s leadership and a possible harbinger for November elections.

Trump, who lost the district that runs through a swath of suburbs and small ranches in 2016, urged voters to support the political newcomer Garcia, while former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and other high-profile Democrats lined up behind state legislator Smith.

“Remember, get out and vote for Mike Garcia,” Trump tweeted Tuesday. “A really big deal for our country!”

Early tabulations showed Garcia with about 56% of nearly 140,000 votes counted.

Nearly all voters were expected to mail in ballots because of the virus outbreak, though a sprinkling of polling places were available for those to vote in-person. Mail-in ballots can arrive as late as Friday and still be counted provided they were postmarked by Tuesday.

The seat became vacant last year after the resignation of then-Rep. Katie Hill, who stepped down after admitting to an affair with a campaign worker and the House opened an ethics probe into an allegation that she was involved with a member of her congressional staff, which Hill denied.

Smith and Garcia topped a crowded field of candidates in the state’s March 3 primary and advanced to separate elections: One, on Tuesday, to fill the remainder of Hill’s two-year term, and a second in November for the full, two-year term starting in 2021.

A win by Garcia would establish him as the incumbent for November and show Republicans can compete in a district where Trump was defeated by Clinton in 2016. It would also provide a wisp of encouragement for the state’s beleaguered GOP, which has been drifting toward obscurity in California for years.

Republicans haven’t managed to seize a Democratic House seat in California in over two decades, and the GOP holds just six of California’s 53 House seats. Trump lost the state by over 4 million votes in 2016.

In a rout, Democrats picked up seven Republican House seats in California in 2018, helping the party retake control of the chamber.

The district anchored in Los Angeles County, with a slice of Ventura County with the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on its western end, has a Democratic registration edge and Hill captured the seat by nine points in 2018.

But there were factors that helped Garcia’s chances.

Hill left under the taint of scandal, and in an expected low-turnout election older, white Republicans tend to be among the state’s most reliable voters. Younger registered voters in the state who lean liberal are known to be frequent no-shows. Also, the district has a Republican pedigree – it was long in GOP hands before Hill’s 2018 upset.

Trump has been at the center of the race, summoning support for Garcia while attacking Smith and her Democratic supporters. Last weekend, the president took to Twitter to attack a decision to add an in-person polling place in Lancaster, a part of Los Angeles County with a significant black population. “Rigged Election!” Trump wrote. However, it turned out the decision was supported by Lancaster’s Republican mayor.

Most of the campaign was conducted online, without traditional rallies and door-knocking. California’s stay-home orders apparently will thwart any effort by the campaigns to engage in so-called ballot harvesting, a legal practice in California in which operatives collect ballots from voters and deliver them to polling places.

Garcia, a former combat pilot and defense industry executive, has depicted Smith as another vote for the Democratic status quo in California that he blames for soaring homelessness, heavy regulation and rising taxes.

Smith is a state Assembly member promising to work for improved health care who has been critical of the president and his administration.

Even if Garcia wins, November typically draws a large Democratic turnout in California, particularly in presidential election years, which would give Smith an edge in the fall rematch.

With a national debate underway on mail-in voting, the race will also serve as a window into how the process works out, albeit on a small scale.