There are indications that 2020 may bring another active—and early—hurricane season, with a better ... [+]
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is a little under a month away and there are indications that 2020 may bring another active—and early—hurricane season. Above average sea surface temperatures, a mild winter, and potential La Niña conditions hint that there may be above normal tropical storm activity. And, there’s a better than average chance of seeing the first tropical storm form in May as tropical forcing appears to become favorable beginning May 6-8 and extending through at least the middle of May. For businesses, it’s time to look closely at your hurricane preparedness plan and make sure you have plans to protect people and physical assets.
Offshore operations like oil rigs, gas refineries, and wind farms are at a heightened risk due to location and evacuation lead time, but even onshore businesses and neighboring states can feel the impact of tropical storms. For example, Hurricane Harvey was the costliest tropical cyclone on record in the U.S., inflicting $125 billion in damage, largely from the unprecedented rainfall-triggered flooding across southeast Texas.
If a tropical storm is named prior to this season’s June 1st start date, it would be the sixth year in a row, starting with Tropical Storm Ana back in 2015. Prior to last year’s record, the previous record was set back in 1954 when there were four consecutive years of pre-June storm formation.
Sea surface temperatures throughout the basin, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, are above average for this time of the year. Throughout the winter there was a lack of significant cold air intrusion from polar cold fronts into the Gulf and the western Atlantic, and for the past 90-120 days the waters have remained warm. Historically, when above normal water temperatures occurred across the basin in February, March and April, it has often resulted in above normal tropical storm or hurricane activity.
As we get deeper into the spring and summer, these waters will continue to warm. Strong tropical storms and hurricanes typically develop in areas that have warm waters, so the Gulf and the western Atlantic near the Bahamas may potentially become an area where tropical storm and hurricane genesis occurs throughout the tropical season into late summer and early fall.
The ENSO cycle is a good indicator of tropical storm activity. The forecast is for ENSO neutral conditions later this summer, but it may be on the colder end of neutral, which is favorable for increased tropical cyclone activity across most of the basin. Most of the global model guidance is showing above normal rainfall through the Atlantic’s main development region. These, along with the warm water temperatures, are all favorable indicators. With all that said, there are still some unknowns that won’t become clearer until weeks or possibly months ahead.
But, what we do know is that it’s not too early for businesses to revisit hurricane preparedness plans as hurricanes are the most damaging of natural disasters. One powerful hurricane can have a huge impact on the economy, not only causing great damage, but even increasing unemployment and depressing the financial markets, and with the global economic crisis underway this could have even more impact this season. Every organization is vulnerable to the aftermath of a disaster and should have plans for managing a storm’s potential impact. FEMA and other organizations offer great planning tools and resources to help businesses get plans in place, and now is the time.
