Iowa Poll: 'Medicare for All,' Green New Deal, free tuition attract likely caucusgoers' support, but also concerns

The Des Moines Register

A plurality of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they’re personally comfortable with “Medicare for All” and tuition-free public college and think candidates should run on those issues.

But both stances cause heartburn for a majority of likely caucusgoers for different reasons. Some are comfortable with the policy but fear running on it could cost Democrats the election, and others oppose the policy, according to a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

For example, 41% of likely Democratic caucusgoers support Medicare for All — defined in the poll as "shifting to a completely government-run health system" — and think candidates should advocate for it. Another 28% are personally comfortable with the policy but fear it could cost the party the general election. Twenty-four percent say it’s bad policy. Eight percent aren't sure.

The results are emblematic of a broader tension within the Democratic presidential primary as some candidates push for aggressive policy changes that other candidates fear push the party too far to the left.

“I’m from rural Minnesota, so a lot of the people I grew up with are Republicans,” said Theresa Lucin, a 31-year-old poll respondent and Coralville resident. “I know a lot of them voted for Trump just because he was the Republican nominee. But this time around, they’re saying, ‘I don’t like what he’s been doing. I don’t like him as a person.’ … I feel like, if we can get someone nominated in the caucus that can reach those voters, they would turn that a bit, and the Democrats would win the election.”

Lucin is a fan of South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who has proposed a health care plan that he’s calling “Medicare for all who want it.” That proposal creates a public option but stops short of eliminating private health insurance the way U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for All” proposal would.

Medicare for All is most popular with younger voters and the ultra-liberal: 52% of those under age 45 say Medicare for All is good policy and candidates should run on it, and so do 67% of people who describe themselves as “very liberal.”

The 28% who fear running on it could cost the election include 43% of suburbanites. The 24% who say it’s bad policy include above-average proportions of those 65 and older (39%) and Biden supporters (35%).

The poll of 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Sept. 14-18 by Selzer & Co., and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

As with Medicare for All, views toward free tuition for four-year public colleges are mixed. Thirty-six percent say it’s good policy that candidates should run on; 25% say it’s good policy but worry it could cost Democrats the election; and 31% say it’s bad policy. Eight percent are unsure.

“(Free tuition) sounds nice. I like that. I like that policy,” said Tom Ervin, a 73-year-old poll respondent and LeClaire resident. “But once you do that, you’ve got all the people who say, ‘I didn’t get to go to college; now it’s going to be free.’ You’ve got the people who say, ‘I went to college, and it wasn’t free for me.’ And then you’ve got the people who don’t want to give money to anybody for anything… Automatically, with that one issue, you’ve got a whole lot of opponents.”

Just under half of likely Democratic 2020 caucusgoers (48%) support the Green New Deal and say candidates should champion the policy on the campaign trail. It's most popular with likely caucusgoers who are very liberal (84%), under 35 (62%) and those who live in cities (58%).

Another 16% support it but worry that it comes with political risks, and 12% say it’s bad policy. Nearly a quarter of respondents (24%) say they're not sure how they view the Green New Deal, even though many Democratic candidates have spoken about it in Iowa.

Of six issues tested, likely Democratic caucusgoers are by far most united in their support for raising taxes on the wealthy and for restoring a ban on assault-style weapons.

Seventy-four percent of poll respondents say they endorse raising taxes on the wealthy and believe candidates should run on the issue. Strong majorities of all demographic groups tested endorse that idea. Just 13% worry about its political ramifications, and 7% think it’s bad policy.

Sixty-nine percent of poll respondents support a ban on assault-style weapons and think candidates should run on the issue. Strong majorities of all but one demographic group endorse the proposal. The exception is political independents — who support it, but with a weaker majority (52%). Among all likely caucusgoers, 15% worry it could cost the election and 8% think it’s bad policy.

The least popular position tested is whether candidates should endorse “moving the country in a socialist direction.” The plurality, 37%, say it's bad policy. Twenty percent of poll respondents say they are comfortable with the position and think candidates should run on it; 32% are comfortable with the position but worry about the political costs.

Those who think it's bad policy include above-average proportions of independents (46%), moderates (57%), seniors (47%) and those living in rural areas (50%). Fifty-five percent of Joe Biden's supporters think it's bad policy; 21% of Elizabeth Warren's supporters agree.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is Chief Politics Reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

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About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted September 14-18, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,510 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 602 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.