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    Governor Tom Wolf
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    CMU Risk Based Decision Support Tool

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    CMU Risk Based Decision Support Tool

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    136 views15 pages

    CMU Risk Based Decision Support Tool

    Uploaded by

    Governor Tom Wolf
    CMU Risk Based Decision Support Tool

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 15

    Risk-Based Decision

    Support Tool

    May 1, 2020
    Recap: Project Goals

    Create data-driven decision support tools to safely reopen


    the PA economy and achieve the following policy goals:

    ● Minimize the diffusion of COVID-19


    ● Maximize a rapid return to work and revitalize key industries
    ● Limit long-term economic impact of COVID-19 &
    the shut down
    ● Achieve equitable outcomes for vulnerable residents
    Recap: Data-driven Decision Support Tools

    Inputs: Data & Priorities Decisions we can


    Outputs
    support
    Public Data from Census, Which industries can safely
    BLS, BEA open, in which counties, and
    under what conditions? Health and Economic
    Data from State Agencies: UI Monitoring Dashboard
    Claims, Wage Records, What will be the health risks
    Revenue, SNAP, TANF, and economic impact Health Risks
    Medicaid, Revenue, DCED, associated with opening an
    industry?
    Health Economic Impact
    Which industries can
    Health and Human Services re-engineer workflows? Impact on Equity
    Forecasts/Models from
    Partners (Pitt, Penn) What impact will this have on Evaluating the Impact of
    vulnerable workers & policy interventions
    State Priorities & Policy businesses?
    Goals
    Risk-Based Approach
    We take a wide variety of risks associated with re-opening a set of industries in a
    county or region. In addition to what we show in this presentation, we have also
    explored and developed additional ones including:

    ● Face-to-face contact risk in workplaces


    ● Nursing home spread risk
    ● Customer contact risk
    ● Supply Chain risk
    ● Resilience
    ● Unemployment Risk
    ● Social Service Benefits Risk
    ● Equity Risk
    ● ...
    Risk Indices

    COVID Case Risk: # of reported COVID-19 cases / population of area

    ICU Capacity Risk: # of 60+ year olds in area / # of unoccupied ICU Beds

    Population Density Risk: Population of Region / Area of Region

    Population Age Risk: % of population in area > 60 yr old

    Re-Opening Contact Risk: % of workers in an area employed in currently “physically


    closed” industry sectors
    COVID-19 Case Risk
    ICU Capacity Risk
    Population Density Risk
    Population Age Risk
    Re-Opening Contact Risk
    Our recommendation is to use these risk indices to monitor and
    understand trade-offs and make informed policy decisions based on state
    priorities

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