We’re approaching the 10-game mark of the season and while it’s still hard to infer much about what’s transpired so far and What It Means, there is one number that we can put immediate stock into: ice time.
If you want to know a coach’s true feelings about a player, check out how much ice time they receive. Generally, coaches play guys they like more and give fewer minutes to the guys they… let’s say “like less,” though there are other contextual factors in that equation. Minutes fluctuate throughout the season (one of my favorite visualizations shows just that over at HockeyViz), but they generally take immediate shape and give us a window into a coach’s mind. Though they sometimes have blindspots, most coaches know what they’re doing, meaning these early trends in usage can showcase which players are worth keeping an early eye on, for better or worse.
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A big part of my season preview series was estimating just how many minutes each player would get. It’s the only subjective piece of the algorithm and was informed mostly by the talented ensemble of beat writers we have here at The Athletic in every market. Things change once the puck drops so I wanted to check in with every team to see which players are receiving more ice time than expected, which ones are getting less and what that means for each team.
Anaheim Ducks
Ryan Getzlaf
Projected: 19.4 minutes
Actual: 17.5 minutes
Projected: 58 percent of power-play time
Actual: 48 percent of power-play time
Teams with new coaches are always the most interesting when it comes to exercises like this as there will always be slight deviations from previous regimes. In Anaheim, the most telling ice time stat relates to Ryan Getzlaf’s shrinking role as he’s no longer the de facto top dog at evens or on the power play. What’s intriguing about Anaheim this year is the balance in minutes as Dallas Eakins begins to figure out who he can and can’t trust and that manifests in lower minutes for the team captain. Rickard Rakell is the minute leader for forwards and is only playing 18 minutes. Hampus Lindholm is at 22 minutes on defense. For now, the balanced approach seems to be working and we’ll see if that continues going into the season. At forward we’re already beginning to see some separation with the team’s top five.
Arizona Coyotes
Nick Schmaltz
Projected: 17.8 minutes
Actual: 14.1 minutes
Projected: 67 percent of power-play time
Actual: 43 percent of power-play time
Everything in Arizona is pretty much as expected save for Nick Schmaltz who has been bumped from the top power-play unit and not playing on the top line with Phil Kessel. On a team with limited offensive catalysts that’s not ideal for his future production, but Schmaltz has made it work so far and is leading the team in points with eight in seven games. He’s been one of the team’s stronger players in the early going and arguably deserves minutes requisite of that – more in line with what was originally projected for him.
Boston Bruins
David Pastrnak
Projected: 68 percent of power-play time
Actual: 75 percent of power-play time
The Bruins’ top power play was already projected to be one of the most heavily utilized quintets in the league and that’s been taken up a notch yet again this season with Pastrnak earning 75 percent of the ice so far. The Bruins’ power play is naturally red hot, converting at 37.5 percent and Pastrnak is a big reason why with seven power-play points on the year, good for second in the league.
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Buffalo Sabres
Rasmus Ristolainen
Projected: 21.3 minutes
Actual: 24.0 minutes
Rasmus Dahlin
Projected: 24.4 minutes
Actual: 19.0 minutes
As mentioned in 16 Stats last week, I expected Buffalo to play Dahlin more this season and Ristolainen less and despite the latter losing his PP1 job that hasn’t been the case as Ristolainen is still eating big minutes. It’s working for now, but for how much longer?
Vladimir Sobotka
Projected: 12.4 minutes
Actual: 15.3 minutes
Casey Mittelstadt
Projected: 15.9 minutes
Actual: 11.0 minutes
At forward, I figured Mittelstadt would begin seeing some top-six time, but he seems to be in the dog house to start the season and skating in his place is … Vladimir Sobotka? While I’m no Mittelstadt apologist (and at this point, why not get some much-needed playing time in the AHL?), it’s hard to argue Sobotka is a suitable replacement. He was one of the league’s worst players last year and is somehow sporting a 47 percent expected goals rate this season when both of his regular linemates are well above 50 percent. While things are working for Buffalo for now, again I wonder if it will continue given this strange usage and the lack of true top six options. Ralph Krueger has fresh eyes on the sport after being out of hockey for many years and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt after a hot start, but some of the early usage is puzzling.
Calgary Flames
Andrew Mangiapane
Projected: 13.3 minutes
Actual: 10.9 minutes
With the Flames winger depth being a bit lackluster, there was some expectation that Mangiapane might be able to forge a bigger role this season, but that hasn’t been the case in the early going as he’s back around the 10-to-11 minute mark he was at last season. With strong underlying numbers once again this year, he may deserve a longer look than the two-game stretch this year where he was at 15 minutes.
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Carolina Hurricanes
Dougie Hamilton
Projected: 20.9 minutes
Actual: 23.5 minutes
Projected: 48 percent of power-play time
Actual: 59 percent of power-play time
Hamilton’s usage has always been puzzling. He carries huge value as an offensive driver, but hasn’t earned many sniffs on the top power play and has rarely used as a top-pairing defender at evens. It led to many in the analytics community wondering “what if Hamilton was actually used like a top defenseman – what would it look like?” Well, it looks something like the electric start he’s had this season where he has 10 points in nine games (four of which have come on the power play) with a 57 percent expected goals rate while leading the team in ice-time with 23:28, a career high. The Hurricanes’ power play is scoring 12.4 goals-per-60 with Hamilton on the ice, a big step up from their power play last year – though a high shooting percentage has a lot to do with that.
Sebastian Aho
Projected: 62 percent of power-play time
Actual: 45 percent of power-play time
The one issue with Hamilton being on the top power-play unit? Aho isn’t on it. The team’s best forward is off to a slow start and the minute reduction with the man advantage is part of it. His unit started as the go-to, but when one is clicking and one isn’t, the minutes readjust as they have in Carolina. I’d love to see Aho join that top five-some, but until they slow down, he’s going to see less power-play time.
Chicago Blackhawks
Connor Murphy
Projected: 18.2 minutes
Actual: 21.7 minutes
I was a bit surprised to see Murphy earn a big minute jump, but he’s usurped the defensively ill-equipped Erik Gustafsson on the top pair with Duncan Keith and has deserving underlying numbers so far to earn it. His 58 percent expected goals rate leads the team’s defenders.
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Colorado Avalanche
Cale Makar
Projected: 22.5 minutes
Actual: 18.6 minutes
After an explosive postseason, many in hockey expected Makar to be the next big thing on defense. He was projected to take the keys to the top power play from the departed Tyson Barrie, but that role was stripped of him on Saturday against the Lightning in favor of Samuel Girard. At evens, he’s being treated as a third-pairing defender until he can prove more and without that top power-play time, it leaves him with fewer minutes than initially expected. None of this is set in stone, but it’s not the start many pictured for Makar. For what it’s worth, his 53 percent expected goals rate is among the highest on the team.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Alex Wennberg
Projected: 15.0 minutes
Actual: 19.1 minutes
For much of last season, Wennberg was in John Tortorella’s doghouse. But he’s emerged this year, playing above the 19-minute mark and is now the team’s second most-used forward behind Cam Atkinson. He’s driving play again, scoring at a higher pace than last season and is back on the top power play too. It’s unlikely he gets back to the heights seen in 2016-17 where he scored 59 points, but it won’t be as bad as last season.
Dallas Stars
Joe Pavelski
Projected: 67 percent of power-play time
Actual: 63 percent of power-play time
Tyler Seguin
Projected: 70 percent of power-play time
Actual: 63 percent of power-play time
John Klingberg
Projected: 70 percent of power-play time
Actual: 59 percent of power-play time
Alex Radulov
Projected: 70 percent of power-play time
Actual: 57 percent of power-play time
Jamie Benn
Projected: 65 percent of power-play time
Actual: 55 percent of power-play time
Jim Montgomery said at the start of the season that the Stars have “two No. 1 units.” I don’t mean to be rude or anything, but no, they absolutely do not. Some teams can, yes. The Dallas Stars, a famously top-heavy team with a lack of any semblance of forward depth, are not one of those teams. And it showed to start with those “two top units” clicking at 7.4 percent to start the season. Not loading up one unit is the key difference from last season — when the team was 11th. After adding Joe Pavelski in the offseason, it should’ve been a no-brainer, but here we are. Monday night’s game against Ottawa was a slight improvement at least.
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Detroit Red Wings
Andreas Athanasiou
Projected: 55 percent of power-play time
Actual: 35 percent of power-play time
I thought Athanasiou would be on the top power play this season. To start he was not, but he is now. So basically, nothing to see here.
Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid
Projected: 80 percent of power-play time
Actual: 86 percent of power-play time
I already projected McDavid to earn an even bigger piece of the power play pie compared to last season when he was at 77 percent, but he’s slightly higher than expected. So high that his 86 percent leads the league, ahead of Alex Ovechkin. That’s notable and part of why he leads the league in power-play points with nine. In the highest leverage offensive situation of any game, that’s the way it should be.
Florida Panthers
Keith Yandle
Projected: 22.4 minutes
Actual: 17.9 minutes
Under Joel Quenneville, the Panthers have employed a strict top four, bottom pair dynamic at 5-on-5 with the former getting 17 minutes or more and the latter earning under 13. Yandle and his $6.35 million salary find themselves in the latter camp, getting just 12:29 to start the season. That ranks 15th lowest in the league among defensemen that have played over 50 minutes this season. With a stunningly poor 36 percent expected goals rate, it’s not undeserved either.
Los Angeles Kings
Drew Doughty
Projected: 26.5 minutes
Actual: 23.9 minutes
Doughty is still eating a lot of minutes and is the team’s de facto top dog, but it’s not as many minutes as usual as he’s once again seeing some early-season struggles. His 47 percent expected goals rate is somehow a full 10 percentage points less than the next worst Kings defender. More interesting with his usage is that at 5-on-5 only 16 seconds is separating him and Alec Martinez, the team’s fourth most used defender.
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Minnesota Wild
Mats Zuccarello
Projected: 18.0 minutes
Actual: 14.9 minutes
The Wild’s big splash during free agency isn’t seeing the big minutes some expected, averaging under 15 minutes in the four games he’s suited up for. That’s the case for many Wild forwards this year as the minute distribution has seen more balance overall.
Montreal Canadiens
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Projected: 15.7 minutes
Actual: 13.4 minutes
The 2018 third overall pick was a revelation in his rookie season for his defensive acumen (albeit in sheltered minutes) and on a team without a true star down the middle, the opportunity was there for him to seize. He hasn’t taken the jump as expected and has instead been taken to school, earning a woeful 38 percent expected goals rate so far. That’s last on the team, matching his 13.4 minutes per game.
Nashville Predators
Kyle Turris
Projected: 15.7 minutes
Actual: 13.4 minutes
Turris’ fall down the depth chart continues as he drops even further, now playing just 13:22 per night after playing close to 16 minutes in his first two seasons. With Filip Forsberg currently sidelined though, he has an opportunity for a bit more on the second line and saw 18:11 against Florida on Saturday as a result.
New Jersey Devils
Travis Zajac
Projected: 15.2 minutes
Actual: 18.5 minutes
Kidding aside, Zajac has arguably been one of the team’s best forwards through New Jersey’s rough start and he’s a nice piece to have as Jack Hughes gets acclimated with the big leagues and Nico Hischier deals with an injury. That doesn’t make it less funny though.
Nikita Gusev
Projected: 17.0 minutes
Actual: 12.9 minutes
Oh yeah, and then there’s this. There was a lot of hype surrounding Gusev given his KHL totals and so far he has not delivered and has been swiftly dropped down the depth chart as a result. Through eight games his expected goals percentage is 25 percent. Twenty. Five.
P.K. Subban
Projected: 65 percent of power-play time
Actual: 51 percent of power-play time
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Sorry, one last thing on the Devils. P.K. Subban is already off the top power play after the team’s brutal start to the season with the man advantage. My fantasy hockey team is not happy about the decision.
New York Islanders
Mathew Barzal
Projected: 63 percent of power-play time
Actual: 43 percent of power-play time
The Islanders power play is roaring to start the season, converting on one-third of their chances (though they’ve only had 12 in eight games to start the season) and that isn’t because of their star center. Barzal finds himself on the outside of the top unit for now, though what he loses in ice-time there he makes up for at 5-on-5, as he’s now averaging 19 minutes per night.
New York Rangers
Pavel Buchnevich
Projected: 40 percent of power-play time
Actual: 56 percent of power-play time
The Rangers’ top four power-play options were pretty obvious to start the season: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba. The last piece was up for debate though with second overall pick Kaapo Kakko likely making a case for himself. For now, it’s Buchnevich’s job and he’s earning big minutes on a decidedly thin Rangers team, power play included.
Ottawa Senators
Nikita Zaitsev
Projected: 20.5 minutes
Actual: 24.0 minutes
Tyler Ennis
Projected: 13.9 minutes
Actual: 16.7 minutes
Connor Brown
Projected: 17.2 minutes
Actual: 19.9 minutes
I figured Toronto’s castoffs would see much heavier usage in Ottawa, but my word, I did not expect this. Nikita Zaitsev is on the top pair and is averaging the 18th most minutes in the league this season. Tyler Ennis is flirting with the top six. And Connor Brown is well surpassing his already lofty projection of 17 minutes to near 20 minutes a night. He’s Ottawa’s most-used forward! That’s probably very telling of the season to come.
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Philadelphia Flyers
Oskar Lindblom
Projected: 14.9 minutes
Actual: 17.2 minutes
Like all new coaches, Alain Vigneault is still figuring things out to start his tenure with Philadelphia, and it seems he’s already figured out Lindblom is a player. At 17 minutes, he’s seeing a substantial bump from last season’s 13:45 and is doing great work with four points in six games. That’s more than Jakub Voracek, though that may be a bridge too far. Regardless, it’s great to see the faith being placed in Lindblom’s game.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Dominik Simon
Projected: 11.7 minutes
Actual: 16.6 minutes
It appeared as if Simon would start the year on the fourth line with the team’s glut of forwards, an ill-advised decision based on his strong underlying numbers. Then injuries happened. A lot of injuries. And, welp, now he’s next to Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. Lucky him. Simon has the team’s third-highest time on ice at forward this season and now it’s on him to make these minutes count. His 1.71 points-per-60 is a solid start.
San Jose Sharks
Evander Kane
Projected: 40 percent of power-play time
Actual: 77 percent of power-play time
Timo Meier
Projected: 63 percent of power-play time
Actual: 37 percent of power-play time
One winger is off to a hot start. The other has been chilly. The major difference has been power-play time as Kane has earned a spot on the top unit off the bat, while Meier has been relegated to PP2. Given Kane has never consistently played on a top unit in his career, his presence there this year is a mild surprise. But considering his performance so far, the real surprise should be what’s taken so long? He already has four power-play points in five games and it’s safe to say his career-high of 11 reached last year will be surpassed. From PP2 regular to sixth-highest usage in the league at 77 percent – that’s hard to predict.
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St. Louis Blues
Robert Thomas
Projected: 14.7 minutes
Actual: 9.9 minutes
Aside from Thomas easing back into the lineup from an injury, there’s not much to report here. Everything is basically as expected.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Kevin Shattenkirk
Projected: 17.6 minutes
Actual: 20.9 minutes
Mikhail Sergachev
Projected: 20.6 minutes
Actual: 18.1 minutes
Initially, it was expected that Sergachev would finally make the jump to the top four while Shattenkirk would be useful depth on the third pair hoping for a bounce back. The bounce-back indeed seems to be underway and that’s led to Shattenkirk jumping over Sergachev in the pecking order, now being used as a No. 3 behind Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh. I’m still perplexed as to why the Rangers – whose defense is now routinely getting caved in – would buy him out and Shattenkirk seems to be vindicating that thought in the early going.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Trevor Moore
Projected: 10.0 minutes
Actual: 14.8 minutes
Moore looked to be fourth line fodder for the season, but someone had to move up with Zach Hyman out to start the season and he’s begun to prove his worth in the early going. With his impressive showing to start, it’ll be hard to take him out of the top nine once everyone is healthy.
Vancouver Canucks
Troy Stecher
Projected: 19.9 minutes
Actual: 13.1 minutes
Micheal Ferland
Projected: 17.0 minutes
Actual: 12.1 minutes
The dog house is never where you want to be and in Vancouver that looks to be the current residence of Troy Stecher and Micheal Ferland. Stecher made strides last season but is a victim of the numbers game right now as the team’s top four is proving to be much more formidable than expected. As for Ferland, he hasn’t lived up to expectations at all with two points and a team-worst 41 percent expected goals percentage. His minutes have dropped hard going from 17:36 in the opening game, to 12:41 in the second game, to under 12 in every game since. On Sunday against the Rangers, he played just 7:15. Ouch.
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Vegas Golden Knights
Shea Theodore
Projected: 58 percent of power-play time
Actual: 77 percent of power-play time
I pegged Theodore as a prime breakout candidate this season based on his stellar underlying numbers and the likelihood that he would be The Man on the team’s top power play. That’s exactly what’s happened … and then some as he’s pretty much taken over the entire man advantage for the team. The only players getting a higher share right now are Alex Ovechkin, Evander Kane and three members of the Edmonton Oilers. With Colin Miller gone and Nate Schmidt out, it’s Theodore’s time to shine.
Washington Capitals
Evgeny Kuznetsov
Projected: 18.8 minutes
Actual: 15.9 minutes
For most of his career Kuznetsov has been regularly out-chanced (compared to public metrics anyways) and this year it’s caught up to him in the early goings. His goals percentage of 43 percent matches his expected goals share and I would guess his weakness at 5-on-5 is part of the reason he’s seeing just 11:33 there per game this season. That’s sixth on the team and a full minute less than Lars Eller.
Winnipeg Jets
Anthony Bitetto
Projected: 11.9 minutes
Actual: 15.8 minutes
Anytime you have to give a defender of Bitetto’s caliber actual minutes, you’re likely going to have a bad time. His current rate isn’t a lot, but even just 16 minutes is still far too many for a team with playoff aspirations.
(Stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick)
(Top photo: Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)
