Poll: Impeachment may have increased support for Trump's re-election in Utah

(KUTV) — Support for President Donald Trump’s re-election has increased slightly, despite his impeachment by Democrats in Congress according to a new survey.

A new UtahPolicy.com/2News poll from Y2 Analytics found 46% of likely voters in Utah said if the election were held today they would vote for Republican Donald Trump. 31% said they would vote for the future Democratic nominee.

In a previous poll from October 2019, 41% said they would back Trump’s re-election bid, while 33% said they would likely vote for the Democratic nominee.

The survey showed 9% of voters would back a third-party candidate in November, while 4% chose another candidate to back. 11% did not know.

Trump carried Utah with 45.5%. The 46% in our survey is in line with his 2016 level of support. However, it’s unlikely there will be a third-party candidate like Evan McMullin who was able to grab 21.5% of the vote that year. That means it’s more than likely that Trump will win the state’s six electoral votes in November.

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The Utah Political Trends survey was conducted from January 16-30, 2020 among 2,296 likely Utah voters. During that period, the Senate impeachment trial of President Trump began on the first day of the survey and continued throughout. Just prior to the survey entering the field, Trump ordered the military drone strike that killed one of Iran’s top military commanders. Trump also celebrated the passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement during that time.

Y2 Analytics pollster Kelly Patterson says the increase in support for Trump could be from Republican voters closing ranks because of impeachment.

“There is a phenomenon known as a ‘rally ‘round the flag’ effect,” says Patterson. “It occurs when a country is under threat or when something else when people value is being criticized. Impeachment was mostly seen as a partisan affair, and so naturally partisans would believe their leader/party/values were being endangered. Such an effect could move individuals from a neutral position to a more favorable position, meaning they would have gravitated closer back to home.”

Not surprisingly, Trump’s bid for another term gets strong support from Republicans. 91% of “strong” Republican voters, 54% of moderate Republicans and 63% of independent voters say they would vote for Trump. Utah Democrats overwhelmingly say they will vote for their party’s nominee, but since Republicans outnumber them by a 5-1 margin, that level of support isn’t enough to break the GOP stranglehold on Utah.

About a quarter of independent voters say they’ll vote for Trump (27%), another quarter plan to vote for the Democrat (25%) while the same number say they’re still undecided (24%).

Support for Trump’s re-election his highest in Utah’s 3rd Congressional District. Half of the likely voters there say they plan to vote for Trump, which is up from 43% support last year. Just 27% will vote for the Democratic nominee.

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The most dramatic rise in voter support for Trump came in the 4th Congressional District, which is represented by Utah’s lone Democrat in Congress, Ben McAdams.

In October 36% said they would vote for Trump, while 38% said their vote would go to the Democratic nominee. Now, 44% say they’ll vote for Trump while 31% want the Democrat. McAdams was the only member of Utah’s Congressional delegation who voted to impeach Trump.

As is the case with most public opinion polls involving President Trump, there is a significant gender gap. 53% of male respondents in our survey said they plan to vote for Trump, while just 39% of women would.

The Utah Political Trends survey was conducted January 16-30, 2020 by Y2 Analytics among 2,296 likely Utah voters with a margin of error +/- 2.1% points. You can read more about the polling methodology here.

KUTV 2News recently partnered with Utah Policy.com and Y2 Analytics and will be providing polling results on a regular basis throughout the election season.