Trump approval, health care dominate 3rd District race between Republican David Young, Democrat Cindy Axne

U.S. Rep. David Young has thoughts on the nasty political climate swirling around his close race to retain Republican hold of Iowa's southwest congressional district.

“A lot of loud voices. Vitriolic in many ways, and I’ve always vowed to not be a part of that,” the Van Meter Republican told agriculture leaders this month in the Des Moines suburb of Adel.

Days later at a Des Moines rally with Vice President Mike Pence, Young called out Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi by name more times than his opponent in the race, Democrat Cindy Axne. Pelosi, of California, is a fixture in GOP campaign ads around the country.

"Nancy Pelosi and her handpicked candidates, they want to take us backwards," Young warned amid supportive boos from the audience.

The dichotomy encapsulates Young’s political challenge in the coming election. The two-term incumbent is at the center of one of the most competitive House races in America, one that could determine the future of the Republican majority in Congress. Yet he's trying to appeal to voters in a district with nearly an equal number of registered Democrats, Republicans and independents.

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Democrats eye opportunity in Cindy Axne

Democrats don’t think Young can hold on this time. Axne, his Democratic opponent, sees vulnerabilities in the congressman’s alignment with President Donald Trump, who has taken controversial positions on a range of issues including foreign policy, health care, immigration, sexual misconduct and tariffs.

Axne repeatedly highlights what analysts have predicted: Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District race is up for grabs and could determine if Democrats flip the House.

“Our government is to be structured to have checks and balances in the system, and right now we don’t,” Axne told the Des Moines Register after an early morning meet-and-greet this month.

Axne, a first-time candidate, has raised serious cash. Recent filings show she brought in $2.5 million in the last quarter — roughly four times as much as Young.

Axne also has support from key Democratic groups, and outside spending in the race against her opponent has run into the millions. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Axne earlier this month, and U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California — a possible 2020 presidential hopeful — appeared alongside the West Des Moines businesswoman at a campaign stop Monday. Several other national politicians are visiting, too.

At another meet-and-greet with Axne, a Democratic volunteer pumped up a crowd of several dozen by asking if they had voted early. Nearly everyone in the room raised a hand.

Dani Ausen, a Democrat at the event, said she likes Axne because of her experience in state government and her push for all-day kindergarten in West Des Moines.

"I like somebody that's not afraid to get in there and make things happen," Ausen said.

David Young's appeal

For all the talk of a so-called blue wave, this isn’t uncharted territory for Young. The former chief of staff to U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley entered the political arena after winning a crowded congressional primary in 2014. Polls in the 2016 election also showed a competitive matchup between him and Democrat Jim Mowrer.

Young’s win two years ago solidified his standing in the district, which includes the state’s capital city as well as the least populated county in the state. Young lingers after campaign events for small talk and handshakes. He visits each of the district’s 16 counties monthly.

"My bosses are the people of the 3rd District," Young told a crowd in August at the Des Moines Register Soapbox, a message he repeats often.

It’s partly why farmland and towns in the region are littered with the dark green signs from Young’s campaign. His supporters think the congressman’s vote to approve federal tax cuts, as well as his legislation to help veterans, will secure him another win.

“With President Trump and with David Young, the country's got a new direction” said Gary Leffler, a 57-year-old Republican from West Des Moines who listened to Young at the recent Pence event. "People (are) really believing in themselves and believing in our country again."

National Republicans are coming out swinging for Young, including the president himself. At a rally in Council Bluffs this month, Trump repeatedly described Democrats as "an angry, left-wing mob."

The president praised Young minutes later: “Remember this: A vote for David is a vote for me and our agenda to make America great again.”

Trump and Pence's visits will be followed by a stop from House Speaker Paul Ryan on Tuesday. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC closely aligned with Ryan, has committed nearly $2 million to the race, airing ads to claim Axne wants to raise taxes in part because she’s been critical of the federal tax cuts that Young backed.

New challenges in 2018

This year carries more baggage for Young than his 2016 race.

In 2016, 47 percent of the district's voters backed Trump in the election, while 43 percent supported Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

But Trump's popularity has been declining in Iowa since then. A September Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found that while the president was still popular with Republicans, 56 percent of the state's adults disapprove of Trump's job performance.

Meanwhile, Republican voter registration has declined by nearly 4,000 voters in the district since October 2016, while Democratic registration has increased by 7,000 and 'no party' has increased by 10,000.

Young is also being hit on health care issues, which are top of mind for Iowa voters. He’s voted to repeal the 2010 Affordable Care Act, including a 2017 bill that would have replaced it with a program with fewer health protections for people who buy insurance outside of their employer. The measure ultimately failed.

The issue is central for Axne and Democratic groups flooding the district’s television airwaves. Young has countered that he co-sponsored an amendment that he said would have offered safeguards for people with pre-existing conditions. Nonpartisan health care groups said at the time that the overall bill still would have hurt access to quality health insurance for people, including those with pre-existing conditions.

At a forum in Des Moines this month, Young caught a glimpse of what could happen at the polls. Carrie Norris, a business owner who volunteers for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, criticized Young about the timing of his 2017 health care vote. She described herself as a "lifelong" Republican who's previously voted for Young. Norris said she switched her voter registration to "no party" after the 2016 election.

"Pre-existing conditions do matter," she told Young from the crowd. "We are Iowans, and we expect honesty."

Young said he disagreed with Norris' recollection and said he had relatives with pre-existing conditions. He told Norris: "This is personal to me, too, and I know it's personal to everybody."

While Young has expressed reservations about the escalating trade war and the future of short-term health care plans that some feel may provide inadequate coverage, Axne notes the congressman’s votes on Capitol Hill are mostly in line with the president.

In another election year, Young may be able to hold off the attacks more easily. JoDee Winterhof, senior vice president for policy and political affairs for the national Human Rights Campaign, doesn’t think this is the year. Her organization has dispatched staffing and volunteers in the final weeks to help Axne’s campaign.

Winterhof said while Young has conservative backing, the district has too many 'no party' voters for that to hold much weight. She predicted independent voters who support the president still want more oversight of him from members of Congress.

"The independents in an election year like this, even those who wanted change, are also looking for checks and balances," she said.

Young told the Register he’s worked hard to deliver “solutions” and to be accessible to his constituents. He predicted it's what his race will come down to.

Asked if it will be enough amid this election, Young said: “We’ll find out Nov. 6.”

Register data specialist Tim Webber contributed to this report.

This version corrects House Speaker Paul Ryan's title.