For just a moment, let’s get ahead of ourselves. Let’s fast forward 12 months, because that’s when the real action is going to take place.
Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson are heading toward free agency next year. Clayton Kershaw and David Price will have the right to opt out. Daniel Murphy, Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel are also on track to become available.
Next year’s free agent class could be the most coveted and highest paid in baseball history.
This offseason?
It’s the Young Rascals at Shea Stadium just before The Beatles took the stage. It’s an opening act. And it’s going to play out in the context of what’s to come.
For a team with significant spending power like the Red Sox, how much should be committed this offseason, knowing next offseason is on the horizon?
The Class of 2018 will be a factor in 2017 decision making, and as this World Series nears its conclusion, we begin to look at the names that will fuel speculation and anticipation for the next three months.
Which free agent and trade targets fit the Red Sox current needs, and which are worth passing over with an eye toward what’s to come?
• Open the checkbook: Without Harper or Machado, the top hitter of this free agent class is Diamondbacks outfielder J.D. Martinez. He hit 45 home runs this year and has become a true nightmare for left-handed pitchers.
Martinez would be a tremendous fit for a Red Sox lineup that could use a true power threat in the middle. The trick would be finding a place to play him and a way to pay him.
As the top bat in a thin market, Martinez could be in line for an overpay. If the Sox can afford him, could he learn first base? Could Hanley Ramirez play enough first base for Martinez to slot as designated hitter? The Red Sox need offense, and Martinez provides a lot of it, which puts him firmly on the radar.
• Option like no other: Given what’s already on the Red Sox roster, it seems unlikely they will look to spend heavily on some of the other top free agents such as Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain. The wild card of the market could be Japanese superstar Shohei Otani, a viable prospect as both a starting pitcher and a designated hitter. If he’s made available, his market will be difficult to predict because his skill set is largely unprecedented.
• Trade speculation that won’t end: The Marlins have new ownership, and are reportedly committed to shedding payroll. That means Giancarlo Stanton will be the hottest trade candidate of the offseason. He’s owed at least $25 million each of the next 10 years, but he’s also the most proven raw power hitter in the game. If there’s a strong market for him, the Red Sox might have to give either Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers to make it happen.
• Figuring out second base: With Dustin Pedroia recovering from knee surgery, the Sox already know they’ll need a second base replacement for at least two months. Dave Dombrowski has said he believes in the internal options, but here are two veteran stopgaps to consider.
Howie Kendrick had an .844 OPS this year, but he’s been mostly a left fielder the past two seasons. If he can still play enough second base to get the Sox through Pedroia’s recovery, Kendrick could then transition into a role player in the outfield and at first base.
Chase Utley has been a platoon starter for the Dodgers in the World Series, and he still hits right-handers with a little bit of pop. He would also bring clubhouse leadership with an ability to transition into a backup role at the infield corners.
If the Sox go the utility route, assuming Zack Cozart priced himself out of the mix and Neil Walker can find more reliable playing time elsewhere, it’s worth exploring a reunion with Eduardo Nunez, who’s already thrived as a Pedroia replacement.
As a trade possibility, Rangers utility man Jurickson Profar is still just 24 and not so long ago was considered the top prospect in the game. The Red Sox could take a flyer, give him a chance to play second base, and when Pedroia comes back, find a role for Profar that suites his performance. He can play just about everywhere, so the Sox could use him anywhere.
• Filling the holes: Beyond the uncertainty at second base, the Sox have most of their key position players returning next season. One exception is at first base, where the team should be looking for a Mitch Moreland replacement.
The free agent market happens to be deep at the position, headlined by Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. Both are Gold Glove finalists who have played for winning teams while putting up strong on-base percentages and hitting 20-25 home runs per year. Still, it’s worth wondering just how significantly they upgrade on what Moreland provided.
Looking to go cheaper? What about the pure power bats of Logan Morrison or Lucas Duda?
The shopping list includes a new right-handed outfielder, as the Sox need to replace backup outfielder Chris Young. Free agent Austin Jackson played that right-handed platoon role to near perfection in Cleveland this year. Going a very different route, would Jayson Werth accept that sort of role at this stage of his career? He also hit lefties this year.
Trade options include White Sox slugger Jose Abreu. He might be an ideal fit, but might also be far too expensive for the diminished Red Sox farm system. The Braves really don’t have a place to play Matt Adams, so his left-handed power bat could be readily available. And the Brewers and Cardinals seem overcrowded in the outfield, so perhaps Keon Broxton or Randal Grichuk from the right side?
• Pitching depth: The Red Sox have perhaps the best closer in the American League in Craig Kimbrel, and they have front-line starters at the top of their rotation. But that doesn’t mean the pitching staff is without needs.
Unless the Sox are ready to trust Joe Kelly, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg as set-up men, they would be wise to once again go after a proven reliever. Free agents Jake McGee and Tony Watson stand out because of their late-inning experience and because they’re left-handed, bringing balance to a bullpen that leans to the right.
Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek would be right-handed set-up alternatives on the open market.
If the Sox look to trade for a bigger arm, look to Kansas City. The Royals are going to have to rebuild this winter, which could put flamethrower Kelvin Herrera in the thick of trade talks. Also, why do the terrible Reds need terrific closer Raisel Iglesias? Both are big arms, still just 27 years old, who could be more than short-term bullpen solutions if the Red Sox have the prospects to make it work.
As for cost-reasonable options to bolster the rotation, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb are beyond what the Sox need for depth. Instead, how about buying low on Chris Tillman? He’s just 29 and might be a bargain after the worst season of his career. Give him a shot to make the rotation out of camp. If he doesn’t, move him into the bullpen.
