Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2018

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Florida's 15th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Dennis Ross (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+6
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 15th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th
Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

State Rep. Ross Spano (R) defeated attorney Kristen Carlson (D) in the general election for Florida's 15th Congressional District on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Rep. Dennis Ross (R) did not seek re-election.[3]

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Carlson in its Red to Blue program, which provided organization and fundraising support to Democratic candidates in Republican-held districts.

Ross was re-elected in 2016 by a margin of 15 percentage points, and the district backed the Republican presidential nominees in 2012 and 2016 by 5 points and 10 points, respectively.[4]

Election forecasters called this race a Toss-up or Leans Republican.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 15

Ross Spano defeated Kristen Carlson in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 15 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/ROSS_SPANO.jpg
Ross Spano (R)
 
53.0
 
151,380
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Carlson__Kristin_Color_HiRes_1__fixed.jpg
Kristen Carlson (D)
 
47.0
 
134,132
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
20

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 285,532
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 15

Kristen Carlson defeated Andrew Learned and Raymond Pena Jr. in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 15 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Carlson__Kristin_Color_HiRes_1__fixed.jpg
Kristen Carlson
 
53.4
 
24,498
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Andrew_Learned.jpg
Andrew Learned Candidate Connection
 
31.6
 
14,509
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Raymond_Pena__Jr._fixed.jpg
Raymond Pena Jr.
 
15.1
 
6,912

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 45,919
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 15

Ross Spano defeated Neil Combee, Sean Harper, Danny Kushmer, and Ed Shoemaker in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 15 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/ROSS_SPANO.jpg
Ross Spano
 
44.1
 
26,904
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Neil_Combee.jpg
Neil Combee
 
33.8
 
20,590
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/preview-full-SeanHarper370x350.jpg
Sean Harper
 
9.9
 
6,018
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DannyKushmer2.jpg
Danny Kushmer
 
6.7
 
4,067
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Screen_Shot_2018-08-19_at_4.46.06_PM.png
Ed Shoemaker
 
5.5
 
3,379

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 60,958
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages
Kristen Carlson, attorney
Kristen Carlson.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: After graduating from the University of Florida and Stetson College of Law, Carlson worked as a prosecutor in Pasco County. She also worked as general counsel for the Florida Department of Citrus, an attorney in private practice, and chief counsel for the Florida Department of Transportation in Bartow. Carlson served as a board member for the Boys and Girls Clubs of Lakeland and the Polk Museum of Art.[5]

Key messages
  • Carlson said she was committed to public service, highlighting her legal work with the Florida Department of Citrus investigating juice companies who falsely advertised their drinks as 100 percent juice and tampered with products.[5][6]
  • Carlson described herself as a moderate, focused more on problem-solving than partisanship. "I am liberal on social issues, but I am a fiscal conservative," she said. "I am not partisan. I look at candidates and policies [not ideologies] before making decisions.”[5][7]




Ross Spano, state representative
Ross Spano.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: Florida House of Representatives (assumed office: 2012)

Biography: Spano earned his J.D. from Florida State University College of Law and opened the law firm Spano & Woody P.A. He served on the boards of the Junior League of Florida, the Brandon Foundation, Lowry Park Zoo, Seffner Chamber of Commerce, and The Straz Performing Arts Center.[8]

Key messages
  • Spano described his record in the state House as being "a consistent voice for families and small businesses, advocating for less regulation, lower taxes, higher paying jobs and safer communities." He said in a campaign ad that he was fighting for the American Dream.[9][10]
  • Spano said he would vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act and "replace it with a market-based system that lowers premiums, covers those with pre-existing conditions, protects the doctor-patient relationship and produces higher quality care."[11]



Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kristen Carlson Democratic Party $2,108,841 $2,101,886 $6,955 As of December 31, 2018
Ross Spano Republican Party $935,844 $934,199 $1,645 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

General election

Florida's 15th Congressional District, General election: Carlson vs. Spano
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Carlson Republican Party SpanoOther/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
New York Times/Siena College
October 16-19, 2018		N/A 43%43%14%+/-4.7499
Remington Research Group
October 17-18, 2018		N/A 41%47%12%+/-2.641,369
SurveyUSA
October 9-14, 2018		News 13 Orlando and Bay News 9 in Tampa 45%45%10%+/-4.6850
AVERAGES 43% 45% 12% +/-3.98 906
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[17]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[18][19][20]

Race ratings: Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Florida's 15th Congressional District the 187th most Republican nationally.[21]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[22]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Kristen Carlson

Support

"Stand Up" - Carlson campaign ad, released October 2, 2018
"Kids" - Carlson campaign ad, released July 24, 2018

Republican Party Ross Spano

Support

"American Dream" - Spano campaign ad, released August 10, 2018

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites, if available.

Democratic Party Kristen Carlson

“

Agriculture

Having a safe and affordable food supply is important to every American. Agriculture is critical to our state’s economy and jobs. As the former General Counsel of the Florida Department of Citrus and my career as a food lawyer, I have worked to support and protect our state’s agriculture from illegal and unfair practices that harm producers and consumers.

In Congress, I’ll continue to fight for our local farmers, ranchers, growers and farm workers to ensure we remain globally competitive. Specifically, I’ll ensure that our local agriculture concerns are addressed in the Farm bill, we get funding for important disease and pest research, our farm products get access to foreign markets and our our jobs and safe food supply are protected.

Additionally, I’ll also work to ensure that the Federal government aggressively enforces existing agricultural trade laws, rigorously investigates industries that “dump” products to undermine our local producers, and ensure that agricultural labor is protected.

Environment

Clean air and clean water are critical to Florida’s economy and the health of every citizen.

Climate change is real, and it’s having a real impact on Florida. Rising sea levels and hurricanes are destructive to our economy, safety, and way of life.

Those who deny climate change and seek to make it a partisan issue are presenting a false choice between economic growth and protecting our environment. The fact is, there are enormous economic benefits to ending our addiction to fossil fuels and transitioning to alternative energy sources.

Healthcare

All Floridians deserve access to affordable and quality health care. The Affordable Care Act was a step in the right direction, and the efforts in Congress to first repeal and sabotage is just partisan politics and it’s hurting Florida.

Donald Trump’s repeal bill would have been a disaster for Florida. We can’t allow insurance companies to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions and charge older Americans five times more. As a type 1 (juvenile) diabetic, I understand what it means to be “uninsurable”.

After Congress and President Trump failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, they have resorted to sabotaging it through executive orders and changes buried in the new tax law. As a result, premiums on Florida’s health care exchange will be increasing dramatically next year. According to one study, a 40-year-old in Florida will be paying $1,000 more.

Instead of these partisan tactics, we should be looking to fix the problems with the Affordable Care Act, and work to bring down costs for Americans. Three commonsense proposals include allowing those age 55 and older to buy into Medicare, allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices like the VA does, and allowing for a public option.

Immigration Reform

With the Trump administration’s latest attack on immigrants, it’s well past time to pass comprehensive immigration reform that strengthens our border while providing a path to citizenship for hard-working undocumented immigrants who pay taxes and contribute to our economy.

What’s happening today is unconscionable. Separating children from their parents. Sending young people brought here through no fault of their own, many of them who only ever knew this country as home, back to places where they haven’t been since they were infants. Arresting and deporting hard-working immigrants who’ve committed no crimes to countries in which their lives are in danger.

We can secure our border while ensuring that law-abiding undocumented immigrants receive a legal status that allows them to be able to live, work, study and continue to contribute to society.

Jobs and Economy

First for me is giving people a fair chance and rebuilding the middle class. To do this we need to focus on the basics – a top-notch public education for our kids to give them the technical skills for high wages jobs.

District 15, situated between Tampa and Orlando, is poised for its own breakout moment. I will work hard to bring better transportation options to the I-4 corridor as well as high wage jobs that complement the existing business, such as logistics and supply change management. District 15 needs to make way for future industry. Our businesses and children can prosper from green energy companies. I will work every day to make this happen.

National Security

As the mother of a Marine veteran and daughter of an Air Force pilot and Army Nurse, nothing is more important to me than keeping our country safe.

Today, we face nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, and we must do everything possible to end these threats including a strong military presence in the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East, further development of our layered missile defense system, and a fully staffed state department.

Furthermore, we must remain diligent in our mission to destroy ISIS and provide local law enforcement the tools they need to stop terrorism on American soil.

Preventing Gun Violence

It is absolutely horrifying that we have allowed partisan politics and the interests of the gun lobby to come before our children’s lives. We are better than this.

I support the Second Amendment. And I believe that law-abiding citizens should not be denied the right to own a firearm.

Congress, though, has a responsibility to act. We need to pass universal background checks, a ban on bump-stocks, which allow individuals to convert firearms into fully automatic weapons, and a ban on high capacity magazines and military-style assault weapons that are designed to kill as many people as possible in the shortest period of time.

Reforming Washington

Washington is broken with hyper-partisanship and it isn’t looking out for the interests of Central Florida families. Washington is not putting the interests of the country first. It’s time we hold Washington accountable, cut the waste and get big money out of politics.

We must demand that Washington spends taxpayer dollars responsibly and not on themselves. Congress and government officials shouldn’t be allowed to “live large” on the taxpayers’ dime. As your Congresswoman, I’ll decline the perks of Congress and support legislation that bans government officials from taking private jets, first-class flights, spending extravagantly on personal office renovations, and end the practice of using taxpayer dollars to pay sexual harassment settlements.

We also need to pass a Constitutional Amendment to overturn the Supreme Court’s ruling in Citizens United which has enabled special interests and billionaires, like the Koch brothers, to upend our democracy.

Retirement Security

We must do more to protect the retirement of Florida families. Americans pay in and work hard to earn their Social Security and Medicare benefits and I will strongly oppose any attempts to privatize or cut these vital programs.

Additionally, we need to do more to protect the personal retirement savings of Florida retirees. We need to bring back the “Best Interest Rule” that required financial advisors to act in the best interest of their clients, not whatever makes their firms the most money.

Tax Reform

I support fiscally responsible middle-class tax cuts. Unfortunately, the new tax law is short-sighted with a windfall for those at the very top. When the law is fully phased in, middle-class Americans will pay more, while the top 1% get 83% of the benefits. Just as alarming, the new law adds $1.5 trillion in debt, and Congress is talking about cutting Social Security and Medicare to pay for it. That is simply unacceptable.

Veterans

As the daughter of two veterans, sister to two, and mother of one, I know the sacrifices the men and women serving our country make every day. We owe it to them to provide them with the best medical care, access to education, job training, and other support they need and deserve.

But instead of working to reform the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA), President Trump and Republicans in Congress continue to play politics while our veterans still wait weeks and even months to get the care they need.

I stand with veteran organizations, including the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) and American Legion, in calling for reforms while opposing any attempts to privatize or otherwise cut the services our veterans need and have earned.

Women's Reproductive Rights

I’ve been pro-choice my entire life and I will stand up to the continued attempts by Republicans in Congress to curtail a woman’s right to choose. Choice means that no politician should be allowed to get between a woman and her doctor.

I’ll also fight to stop partisan efforts to defund women’s health care service providers like Planned Parenthood that provide essential preventative care like cancer screenings and birth control.[23]

”
—Carlson for Congress[24]

Republican Party Ross Spano

“

Healthcare

Obamacare has failed Florida’s families, leading to skyrocketing premiums, fewer coverage options and a lower quality of care. I will vote to repeal it and replace it with a market-based system that lowers premiums, covers those with pre-existing conditions, protects the doctor-patient relationship and produces higher quality care.

Jobs and the Economy

Bureaucratic red tape and high taxes are killing our small businesses. In Congress, I'll work to get government out of the way. We must encourage entrepreneurs to invest, grow, innovate and create high-paying jobs for hardworking citizens.

Education

I believe in providing more choices for parents and opportunities for students to get a high-quality education, regardless of where they live. We should reintroduce vocational education into our public middle and high schools and continue to prepare our kids for the high-paying jobs of today and tomorrow.

Social Security

I was brought up to believe that if you made a promise, you have to keep that promise. I think that is especially true of Medicare and Social Security. Our nation has made a promise to our seniors, and it’s our duty to keep it. I am against changing or reducing any benefits for those at or near retirement.

Veterans

There is no group of people I value more than veterans of our armed forces. Freedom certainly isn't free. It is paid for in the blood and health of our warriors and our federal government should be ashamed at their neglect. ALL veterans should be able to take their VA benefits to ANY healthcare provider. It must be easier and cheaper for these heroes. They deserve it and I will always fight to protect them for the sacrifices they have given to protect us.

Agriculture

In Hillsborough, Polk and Lake counties the agriculture industry is incredibly important. From the critical strawberry and citrus industries to our nursery growers and ranchers, I will be a strong advocate for our agriculture industry and make sure we get the fair deals they deserve on regulations, labor and international trade.

National Debt

Congress, including Republicans, are on a runaway spending train. Our national debt and deficit are out of control and will ultimately lead to the end of our republic. I will ALWAYS seek to cut spending and reduce taxes. America needs Representatives smart and courageous enough to make a Balanced Budget Amendment a reality.

National Security

We have the greatest military in the world and we need to ensure that we continue to support them with funding for training and provide them the equipment they need. Our service members are out there every day defending our constitution and way of life and we owe it to them to make sure they have everything they need to do their job, protect us and come home safe.

Immigration

Our immigration system is broken and fixing it is a top priority. We must secure our borders and stop illegal immigration. We also need to reform our immigration system to encourage those wanting to come to America with skills, work ethic and a desire to live the American Dream.[23]

”
—Spano for Congress[25]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Kristen Carlson Facebook

Republican Party Ross Spano Facebook

District history

2016

See also: Florida's 15th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Dennis Ross (R) defeated Jim Lange (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[26][27]

U.S. House, Florida District 15 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDennis Ross Incumbent 57.5% 182,999
     Democratic Jim Lange 42.5% 135,475
Total Votes 318,474
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 15th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 15th Congressional District of Florida held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Dennis Ross (R) defeated Alan Cohn (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Florida District 15 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDennis Ross Incumbent 60.3% 128,750
     Democratic Alan Cohn 39.7% 84,832
Total Votes 213,582
Source: Florida Division of Elections

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[28][29]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[30][31]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-five years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ The Hill, "GOP Rep. Ross won't seek reelection," April 11, 2018
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Presidential Election Results by Congressional District," accessed October 31, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Kristen Carlson for Congress, "About," accessed August 17, 2018
  6. ↑ YouTube, "Kristen Carlson - Kids," July 24, 2018
  7. ↑ Florida Politics, "Another Democrat lines up for CD 15 race," May 4, 2018
  8. ↑ Florida House of Representatives, "Representative Ross Spano," accessed August 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Ross Spano, "About," accessed October 31, 2018
  10. ↑ YouTube, "Ross Spano–American Dream," August 10, 2018
  11. ↑ Ross Spano, "Issues," accessed October 31, 2018
  12. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  13. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  14. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  15. ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1285654," accessed October 31, 2018
  16. ↑ Twitter, "Peter Schorsch," October 22, 2018
  17. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  18. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  19. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  20. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  21. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  22. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  24. ↑ Kristen Carlson for Congress, "Issues," accessed August 19, 2018
  25. ↑ [www.rossspano.com/issues/ Ross Spano, "Issues," accessed October 30, 2018]
  26. ↑ Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  27. ↑ Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  28. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  29. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  30. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  31. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018
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